This year, next year.

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The latest Group M forecasts for 2012 for the UK arrived on my desk early last week.  There’s been a bit of publicity for the headlines, although not much has changed since the summer edition.  ( , contact :

Despite the continued doldrums in which consumer confidence is mired the document is reasonably optimistic.  Growth of 3% is predicted for the UK although that depends on the Eurozone crisis being contained.  Points of growth lie in TV, outdoor of course in what the report calls “an unusually outdoorsy year which includes the Euro football, the summer Olympics and the Diamond Jubilee” and online.

Embedded in the report, perhaps hidden by the stability of the overall numbers, there lie the seeds of a revolution. 

The National Newspaper section (this year net media £ -6%, next year -3%) contains a call for a new trading model.  It suggests that there is room for a new system that introduces optimisation and makes the market more efficient. 

A new model would be likely to “change the relationship between vendor, agency and client from the existing linear and sometimes adversarial one into a more collaborative triangular partnership” with the outcomes including improved rates for advertisers, but perhaps winners and losers amongst publishers.

There is a new ceo at the Newspaper Marketing Agency (  – Rufus Olins (  I wonder whether his mandate includes instigating a trading revolution ?

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