Some time ago, puzzled as to why certain mathematical and mental-arithmetic problems are still difficult even when you know the method, I came across a theory from cognitive psychology that such thinking uses up a significant amount of energy: easily enough energy to make a real evolutionary difference for our ancestors.

As such, the bear’s lunch analogy probably rings truer than the economists knew. Thinkers in prehistoric times probably did tend to become a bear’s lunch, or a cave lion’s or whatnot.

In other words, we’re not particularly well equipped, from an evolutionary perspective, to handle complex decisions that require a lot of thinking.

On the other hand, I think that the unconscious is capable of some remarkable processes, which can manifest as someone being creative, inspired, a genius, their saying “it just came to me”, experienced, or in those “gifted” people who just seem to make the right decision intuitively. This is not to say there is some magic involved – just that we don’t have the benefit of introspection in these things.

There are some interesting papers on these topics. I read one some time ago that was perhaps more visionary than practical, but talked of computers that might use Artificial Intelligence, modelling all possible inputs and outcomes, and applying “survival of the fittest” algorhythms, in order to deal with complexity in decision making.

This might have the benefit of removing human error and cognitive bias, as well as identifying the best possible decision, but the paper ended on the bewildering and slightly scarey prospect that such applications would end up working well but without us understanding how or why.