Picture source: 74thoakstreet.com

The latest Group M forecasts for 2012 for the UK arrived on my desk early last week.  There’s been a bit of publicity for the headlines, although not much has changed since the summer edition.  (http://www.groupm.com/pressandnews/details/733 , contact : publications.london@groupm.com)

Despite the continued doldrums in which consumer confidence is mired the document is reasonably optimistic.  Growth of 3% is predicted for the UK although that depends on the Eurozone crisis being contained.  Points of growth lie in TV, outdoor of course in what the report calls “an unusually outdoorsy year which includes the Euro football, the summer Olympics and the Diamond Jubilee” and online.

Embedded in the report, perhaps hidden by the stability of the overall numbers, there lie the seeds of a revolution. 

The National Newspaper section (this year net media £ -6%, next year -3%) contains a call for a new trading model.  It suggests that there is room for a new system that introduces optimisation and makes the market more efficient. 

A new model would be likely to “change the relationship between vendor, agency and client from the existing linear and sometimes adversarial one into a more collaborative triangular partnership” with the outcomes including improved rates for advertisers, but perhaps winners and losers amongst publishers.

There is a new ceo at the Newspaper Marketing Agency (http://www.nmauk.co.uk/nma/do/live/homePopulate)  – Rufus Olins (http://www.mediaweek.co.uk/news/1111761/Trading-places-weeks-people-moves/?DCMP=ILC-SEARCH).  I wonder whether his mandate includes instigating a trading revolution ?

picture source : strifeofcloud.com

It is not the Year of the mobile.  Lots of people have smart phones, tablets etc.  Nearly everything will be QR coded or the equivalent (yesterday I walked past a building site with a QR code the size of a window.  My companion asked “How is anyone going to scan that into their phone?”  The better question is will anyone bother?)  HTML5 will make the user experience of advertising rock.  Increased use of geo-location targeting will make relevancy more spiky.

It is not the Year of connected televisions.  There are lots of connected TVs in the home and lots more in the shops now.  If you buy a new expensive TV these days it is impossible to buy one which does not connect to the internet in fact.  This week’s CES show in Vegas features lots of internet connected TVs including the “future-proof” voice controlled, internet connected TV from Samsung with facial recognition, voice recognition (in more than 20 languages) and free access to a whole channel dedicated to Angry Birds !  (Other exciting product development news from CES includes “Body Media” and “Escort Live” – calm down Spearmint Rhino aficionados they are healthcare and traffic products).

It is not the Year of Celebrations – although the UK is set to party.  With the Jubilee, Euro 2012, the Olympics and a general swing to home entertaining there will be plenty of parties.  IPC Connect MD Fiona Dent has described the heightened need to celebrate that she has seen in her readers.  If the economy is depressed then why not party with friends to cheer yourself up?  After all it is easier than ever to arrange to get together.

So what is 2012?  2012 is in fact the Year of People Power. 

It is the year when people can find out what they want to find out with a few touches of their smart phones, whenever they want to and wherever they are.  It’s the year when the opinions of people like us influence what we think more than ever thanks to social media and new apps like Zeebox.  When we can buy a brand that appeals to us instantly and dismiss a brand that has let us down publically.  When according to Arif people set the news agenda via Twitter rather than press barons (http://arifdurrani.mediaweek.co.uk/2012/01/09/murdoch-no-longer-sets-the-news-agenda-twitter-does/) .   2012 is the year people become more demanding of good service and experiences and less tolerant than ever of inconvenience or dull corporate spin.

See Trendwatching.com’s top 12 trends for 2012 which include “Point and know” – instant visual information gratification and “Flawsome” which describes the competitive advantage that lies in adding authenticity to communications this year.  http://trendwatching.com/

2012 is the Year of People Power.

At around this time of year Esteemed Media Pundits have been predicting “Next year is the year of the mobile” for at least 5 years.

I was on a panel recently at the Mobile Advertising World Conference. My co-panellist Simon Andrews upped the game. He’s calling it the “Decade of the mobile”.

Well he might be right, although the particular device you connect to the web with will continue to diversify, and of course what you call it might change.

There used to be a regular annual prediction about convergence, so that you would use one device for all entertainment, calls, web etc. That hasn’t happened. I didn’t think I’d have a use for an iPad as well as a Blackberry and an Android phone but I seem to need to carry all three around with me.

And last time I watched TV with my kids,  daughter 1 was on her iPhone, daughter 2 was bbming and I was looking at Zeebox.

The best remark came not from anyone on the panel but from Hugh Fletcher, National Digital Manager from Audi (who was there to speak about the fantastic Audi app which was the only one pre loaded onto my iPad when I was given it as a birthday present in the summer). He wondered why mobile media men were making it all so complicated, and how we can expect senior marketers who know and understand the power of TV, print, outdoor etc to know or care about a whole new set of jargon.

If it is to be the year (decade) of the mobile next year we’d better keep it simple.

Have you seen the YouTube video yet where a man is chasing his dog, chasing deer in Richmond Park? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GRSbr0EYYU. 

The nation seems divided over whether it is funny or not, but it gives me the excuse to talk about a deer related subject which has lessons for our business.

Let’s talk about Elks.  Robert H. Frank is an economist at Cornell University who has just published a book about the Darwinian theory of Economics (The Darwin Economy, Liberty, Competition and the Common Good).   Frank argues against the commonly accepted theory that out and out competition is good for the nation as a whole because it delivers a stronger set of businesses.

He illustrates this by describing Elks (though the deer in rutting season in Richmond Park would probably work as well).

The outsized antlers of the bull elk function as weapons in their competition for female elks.  At their largest they extend to more than four feet in width.  Satisfying as this is for the elks with the biggest antlers, as a whole this severely compromises the ability of the herd to move through forests and makes them more vulnerable to predators.  “A trait that evolves because it helps the individual prevail in battle against members of the same species typically constitutes a handicap for the species as a whole”.

The analogy runs that the characteristics that have made people win status and position in the economic battles that have been traditionally fought could have a negative influence on the overall strength and success of business.

If you have achieved status and position by stepping on your peers you may have done very well relatively.  But your organisation might not be best placed for long term survival in the new global and digital economy.  For example if you beat the competition by being cheaper than the rest it might result in a win for you, but will drive down prices and profitability in the industry as a whole.

The advertising industry as a whole is still rife with heritage practices.  Is this because the antlers of the alpha elks have grown too big for flexibility?